House Costs Up 14%, However Worth Progress Could Wane Quickly

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Progress in checklist costs is down 3 proportion factors for the reason that finish of August, however pending gross sales had been nonetheless up 30%

Key housing market takeaways for 434 U.S. metro areas through the 4-week interval ending September 27:

  • The median dwelling sale value elevated 14% 12 months over 12 months to $319,769—the best on report. The 14% leap was the most important since August 2013. Because the four-week interval ending July 5, dwelling costs have elevated 6.5%. Over that very same interval in 2018 and 2019, costs declined a mean of 4.2%.
  • The median asking value of recent listings was up 12.8% from a 12 months earlier. This progress charge has been declining for the reason that four-week interval ending August 30, when it peaked at 15.7%.
  • Pending dwelling gross sales climbed 30% 12 months over 12 months.
  • New listings of properties on the market had been up 5% from a 12 months earlier. 12 months-over-year progress in new listings have been above 5% for the reason that four-week interval ending August 16.
  • Energetic listings (the variety of properties listed on the market at any level through the interval) fell 28% from 2019 to a brand new all-time low. The speed of year-over-year provide declines has remained constant at this stage for the previous few months.
  • 45.8% of properties that went below contract had an accepted supply inside the first two weeks in the marketplace. This has additionally held comparatively regular for the final 17 weeks.
  • The common sale-to-list value ratio, which measures how shut properties are promoting to their asking costs, rose to 99.4%—an all-time excessive and 1.2 proportion factors larger than a 12 months earlier.
  • For the week ending September 27, the seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index was up 34.8% from pre-pandemic ranges in January and February.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 2% week over week through the week ending September 25. For the week ending October 1, 30-year mortgage rates fell to 2.88%. Charges have been under 3% since late July.

“The query on everybody’s thoughts is ‘how briskly can costs maintain rising?’,” mentioned Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Though the housing market continues to be red-hot, there are some early indicators we could also be nearing peak value progress. Sellers’ asking costs are nonetheless up considerably from final 12 months, however by a decrease charge than they had been rising through the summer time. Mortgage purposes are additionally starting to wane, and extra new listings are coming onto the market. That is prone to be nearly as good because it will get for dwelling sellers, who positively have had it superb for a really very long time.”

Lack of sturdy progress in new listings is probably going a direct results of the continued pandemic. In a current survey of over 1,400 homebuyers and sellers, 20% of respondents mentioned that now’s a nasty time to promote a house, up from simply 9% within the first quarter of the 12 months. In the identical survey 38% of dwelling sellers mentioned that they’ve well being or security issues because of the coronavirus pandemic, in comparison with simply 8% of homebuyers who cited coronavirus as a priority.

20% of homebuyers and sellers say now is a bad time to sell, up from 7% last year

Home Sale Prices Up 14% to Another New High

Asking Price Growth Peaked in August

Pending Sales Up 30% From a Year Earlier

New Listings of Homes Up 5% From Last Year

Active Listings of Homes For Sale Down 28% From 2019

46% of Pending Sales Under Contract Within Two Weeks

Sale-to-List Price Ratio Climbed to 99.4%

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