Residence costs are skyrocketing in most U.S. markets regardless of COVID- 19, a recession and an incredibly excessive unemployment charge.
Many analysts are speculating that a part of the growth in home costs is brought on by COVID-19 – that some persons are involved about COVID-19 contagion and don’t wish to stay any extra in tight, multi-family buildings so that they’re shopping for single-family properties within the suburbs. One other idea alongside the identical strains is that as a result of working from residence has skyrocketed, some folks need extra space so that they’re shopping for bigger single-family properties, particularly if their children are residence all day, too. This appears to be taking place in metro New York Metropolis however what about locations that weren’t hit as laborious by COVID-19 and aren’t as dense as New York Metropolis?
Definitely the decrease mortgage rates of interest are an enormous half of the present residence worth growth. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage charge the primary week of January 2020 was 3.7% however now it’s solely 2.9%, in response to Freddie Mac. The decrease charges make your month-to-month mortgage fee rather a lot cheaper so extra persons are shopping for properties and in addition they’re shopping for pricier properties.
The month-to-month principal and curiosity fee on a $300,000 mortgage would fall by $132 monthly when charges fall from 3.7% to 2.9%. Or put one other method, for a similar month-to-month principal and curiosity mortgage fee on a $300,000 mortgage at 3.7%, you could possibly borrow $332,000 at at this time’s 2.9%. Plenty of residence consumers are okay with paying a bit extra for a home now as a result of their month-to-month mortgage fee continues to be lower than it could have been final January.
The query is how a lot of the present wild housing market is brought on by the decrease charges and the way a lot is brought on by COVID-19 altering the form of properties folks need. Right here’s a fast have a look at one market the place I’ve entry to detailed housing information, Phoenix, Arizona.
Opposite to the COVID-is-changing-consumer-demand idea, the variety of condos bought through the metro Phoenix MLS in August was up 6% in 2020 in comparison with 2019, whereas the variety of single-family properties bought was down 2%.
Taking a look at costs as a substitute of gross sales, the median worth of Phoenix condos bought in August 202o was up a whopping 17% in comparison with August 2019. For single-family homes, the median worth was additionally up a 17%.
It’s just one metropolis nevertheless it doesn’t appear to be demand is shifting away from dwelling in larger density condos and towards single-family properties.
The principle driver of the present actual property market mania is the decrease mortgage rates of interest which have been in flip brought on by the Federal Reserve’s response to COVID-19. In accordance with this fast evaluation, COVID-19 didn’t trigger Phoenix residence consumers to shift away from condominium purchases.
What are you seeing in your space? If condominium gross sales are comparatively weaker than single-family residence gross sales, that may counsel COVID-19 is altering client demand preferences.