Compass’ newest Bay Space market evaluation reveals sturdy purchaser exercise regardless of current wildfires, with listings beneath contract declining solely 3 p.c.
This 12 months has been tough for a number of actual property markets because of coronavirus and the financial and public well being impacts that adopted. Nevertheless, California has been experiencing further headwinds within the type of ravenous wildfires that have burned more than 6.7 million acres of land and sparked the worst air quality crisis that has only been matched by the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Regardless of these elements, the true property market within the Bay Space has remained astonishingly sturdy, in keeping with Compass’ semi-annual Bay Area Real Estate Market survey released on Friday. Throughout August, the month-to-month median residence worth reached $1,068,000 — a brand new excessive for month-over-month residence worth progress and the six-month rolling common Compass tracks.
“Usually talking, Bay Space markets shrugged off the disaster of the fires and smoke, and people few counties most affected typically bounced again within the first half of September to the place they had been earlier than the fires (and even greater),” Compass Chief Market Analyst Patrick Carlisle stated in an emailed synopsis.
San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara, Alameda and Santa Cruz counties remained the costliest within the area. Santa Cruz shored up the top of the pack with a median worth of roughly $900,000. In the meantime, San Francisco and San Mateo counties had been neck and neck with a median worth nearing $1.7 million.
On the opposite aspect, patrons discovered the perfect offers in Napa, Contra Costa, Sonoma, Monterey, and Solano counties, the place median costs ranged from $475,000 (Solano) to almost $750,000 (Napa and Monterey).
The median worth for 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom properties rose in 8 out of 11 of Bay Space counties, with Santa Clara experiencing the most important year-over-year enhance (+7 p.c) to $1,220,000. San Mateo was the one county to expertise a decline (-2 p.c) to $1,450,000. Marin and San Francisco counties skilled no change from 2019.
Though median residence costs continued to rise in August, the variety of listings going beneath contract barely declined.
“Evaluating Bay Space market exercise within the two weeks ending August 16, earlier than the massive fires started on August 18, and the 2 weeks ending on August 30, when the native fires had been at their worst, [there] was a 3 p.c drop, [which is] most likely not statistically significant,” Carlisle stated. “[However], 4 counties noticed bigger declines: Santa Cruz (-29 p.c), Sonoma (-18 p.c), Monterey (-11 p.c) and Napa (-10 p.c).”
“Santa Cruz County, worst affected by the fires, noticed the most important preliminary decline in exercise, however by mid-September was again as much as pre-fire ranges of accepted-offer exercise, though stock ranges dropped through the interval,” he added.
House gross sales and lively listings had been down year-over-year in most counties, which Carlisle stated might be because of an absence of obtainable listings or diminished buyer demand in the face of economic and public health uncertainty.
The San Francisco condominium (-22.5 p.c) and single-family residence (-14 p.c) markets skilled a decline in greenback quantity residence gross sales alongside Alameda (-15 p.c), San Mateo (-8.5 p.c) and Santa Clara (-6 p.c). House gross sales quantity elevated in all the opposite counties besides Solano, which remained unchanged from 2019.
Lively listings declined in each county besides San Francisco and San Mateo, the place single-family listings grew by 33 p.c and 15 p.c, respectively. The San Francisco condominium market skilled probably the most explosive progress with a 133 p.c year-over-year enhance to 1,083 lively listings.
Trying ahead, Carlisle stated inventory data shows a strong sellers’ market in the Bay Area, besides in terms of the San Francisco condominium market the place there’s 4.5 months of stock obtainable.
“The decrease the MSI, the stronger the client demand as in comparison with the variety of listings on the market,” he defined. “Within the context of Bay Space market situations, an MSI studying beneath 2.5 to three months would sometimes be thought-about to be a sellers’ market.”
“Most of those readings are extraordinarily low, near or hitting all-time low factors in every county,” he continued. “The San Francisco market is the dramatic exception.”